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With its own prospects in the election to the 13th State Assembly remaining uncertain even at this late stage, the Congress in Kerala is relying heavily on the Muslim League and Kerala Congress (M), allies in the UDF coalition it leads, to come back to power after a gap of five years. The results of the election held on April 13 would be declared on Friday.
The Congress, which had contested in 82 seats of the total 140, is claiming that it would win in 50, but leaders say that expecting victory in 45 would be realistic. However, its poll managers are of the opinion that rampant group war in the party had caused widespread leg-pulling and cross-voting which might further affect the prospects.
There are rumours within the Congress that the presence of two candidates (Opposition leader Oommen Chandy and State Congress president Ramesh Chennithala) for the post of chief minister - in the case of a UDF victory - could have damaging effects on the chances of several party candidates.
Party leaders secretly admit that cross-voting could have taken place due to the group war between Chandy and Chennithala. "It is only normal that Chennithala's supporters refuse to vote for Chandy's men and vice-versa, but I cannot say how much this will affect the victory chances of the candidates," said a group-neutral Congress leader.
It would be more realistic on the part of the party in this context to limit its expectations of victory to 38 of the 82 it contested, he said. "This would mean that the remaining seats - a minimum of 33 - needed to cross the halfway mark have to come from the other UDF partners who had contested in 58 seats. This is not impossible but it seems difficult," he added.
It is in this situation that the prospects of the Muslim League and the Kerala Congress (M), respectively the second and third largest partners of the UDF, become crucial for the Congress to come to power. The Muslim League had contested in 24 seats while the Kerala Congress (M), led by former minister KM Mani, had fielded candidates in 15 constituencies.
The Muslim League State secretariat is expecting the party to win in 21 seats despite all the negative propaganda it had suffered due to renewed sex abuse charges against its general secretary PK Kunhalikutty but pollsters are generally of the opinion that it could win 17 seats. They expect Mani's party to win nine of the 15 seats it had contested.
If these expectations materialise and if the Congress wins 45 seats, the UDF would cross the halfway mark. But the big question facing the Congress is whether it would be able to muster 45 seats. If its tally dips to the more "realistic" level of 38 seats, the Congress would be in real trouble, warn observers.
The Congress does not have much hope about the prospects of the other constituents who together had contested in 19 seats. Among them, the Socialist Janata (Democratic) may win three seats and the Kerala Congress (Jacob) and KR Gowriamma's JSS and the Kerala Congress (B) of jailed leader R Balakrishna Pillai may win one seat each.
The Congress is worried that if its tally gets limited to less than 40 seats, the Muslim League and the Kerala Congress (M) are sure to use the tactic of bargaining and Kunhalikutty is likely to demand the post of deputy chief minister or home minister for his party, which would cause serious problems within the Congress.
Kerala Congress (M) insiders have given enough indications that Mani, who has a huge score to settle with the Congress for mercilessly rejecting his demand for at least 17 seats during the seat-sharing talks, would use all his bargaining powers if the Congress fails to muster more than 40 seats on its own.
They also indicate that Mani could consider the option of crossing over to the CPI(M)-led LDF if the UDF fails to get a total of more than 75 seats. "Actually, we should think of that. The Congress has to be taught a lesson for humiliating Mani Saar (Sir) during the seat-sharing talks," said a Kerala Congress (M) leader.
The Congress, which had contested in 82 seats of the total 140, is claiming that it would win in 50, but leaders say that expecting victory in 45 would be realistic. However, its poll managers are of the opinion that rampant group war in the party had caused widespread leg-pulling and cross-voting which might further affect the prospects.
There are rumours within the Congress that the presence of two candidates (Opposition leader Oommen Chandy and State Congress president Ramesh Chennithala) for the post of chief minister - in the case of a UDF victory - could have damaging effects on the chances of several party candidates.
Party leaders secretly admit that cross-voting could have taken place due to the group war between Chandy and Chennithala. "It is only normal that Chennithala's supporters refuse to vote for Chandy's men and vice-versa, but I cannot say how much this will affect the victory chances of the candidates," said a group-neutral Congress leader.
It would be more realistic on the part of the party in this context to limit its expectations of victory to 38 of the 82 it contested, he said. "This would mean that the remaining seats - a minimum of 33 - needed to cross the halfway mark have to come from the other UDF partners who had contested in 58 seats. This is not impossible but it seems difficult," he added.
It is in this situation that the prospects of the Muslim League and the Kerala Congress (M), respectively the second and third largest partners of the UDF, become crucial for the Congress to come to power. The Muslim League had contested in 24 seats while the Kerala Congress (M), led by former minister KM Mani, had fielded candidates in 15 constituencies.
The Muslim League State secretariat is expecting the party to win in 21 seats despite all the negative propaganda it had suffered due to renewed sex abuse charges against its general secretary PK Kunhalikutty but pollsters are generally of the opinion that it could win 17 seats. They expect Mani's party to win nine of the 15 seats it had contested.
If these expectations materialise and if the Congress wins 45 seats, the UDF would cross the halfway mark. But the big question facing the Congress is whether it would be able to muster 45 seats. If its tally dips to the more "realistic" level of 38 seats, the Congress would be in real trouble, warn observers.
The Congress does not have much hope about the prospects of the other constituents who together had contested in 19 seats. Among them, the Socialist Janata (Democratic) may win three seats and the Kerala Congress (Jacob) and KR Gowriamma's JSS and the Kerala Congress (B) of jailed leader R Balakrishna Pillai may win one seat each.
The Congress is worried that if its tally gets limited to less than 40 seats, the Muslim League and the Kerala Congress (M) are sure to use the tactic of bargaining and Kunhalikutty is likely to demand the post of deputy chief minister or home minister for his party, which would cause serious problems within the Congress.
Kerala Congress (M) insiders have given enough indications that Mani, who has a huge score to settle with the Congress for mercilessly rejecting his demand for at least 17 seats during the seat-sharing talks, would use all his bargaining powers if the Congress fails to muster more than 40 seats on its own.
They also indicate that Mani could consider the option of crossing over to the CPI(M)-led LDF if the UDF fails to get a total of more than 75 seats. "Actually, we should think of that. The Congress has to be taught a lesson for humiliating Mani Saar (Sir) during the seat-sharing talks," said a Kerala Congress (M) leader.
