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The two nations, India and Pakistan, separated at birth, have more in common than differences; yet 64-years after our respective independences’ the two nations still have irrevocable differences, which do not seem to have easy solutions in the near future. This love-hate relationship has impacted the lives of the people in this region and in turn has hindered growth. Now, with an American drawn down approaching and the level of violence escalating on a daily basis, is there a need for both the nations to give peace a chance before it becomes to late?
First, Kashmir is not the “core issue”. The core issue is Pakistan itself, created as the “land of the pure”. Religious purity is not the glue that binds the nation; on the other hand it has created deep sectarian fissures between the various societies in Pakistan. There is the Shia-Sunni divide, which is wrecking havoc and the vexed Mojahiar problem of Karachi, which does not seem to have easy answers. Minorities are steadily targeted and the social fabric of the society is being put under strain in a very feudal society. Of course India is a secular society but it did have Hindu-Muslim riots and still is on a tinder box regarding minorities. It has a tolerant society and strong democratic credentials, thus on the path to strong recovery, therefore, seen in this light the Communal Violence Bill being introduced by the NAC could well be a retrograde step.
The next issue is the Pakistan Army itself, which does not exist for the Pakistan State but for itself. The green book of Pakistan lays lots of emphasis on Jihad as a part of State policy, to other it seems the chickens have come home to roost and in the process destabilise the nation of Pakistan. This institution failed the country, with the creation of Bangladesh led many coup de tats on a number of occasions and also was indirectly responsible for Kargil, where nothing was achieved. It is worried about strategic depth in Afghanistan, thus it breeds all sorts of shady outfits and has created a no go area for itself with America, post their with drawl and succeeded in opening up the dormant Western front, thus requiring Secretary of State Clinton to visit and soothe-frayed tempers. The Army said, Napoleon marches on its stomach. A look at history shows that Revolution in military affairs normally occurs in times of economic prosperity. This happens as the size of the economic cake increases and the value of the currency goes up giving a twin bonanza buying more weapons for lesser money. Of course due to various policies, India adopted a dormant policy, underspent, while Pakistan overspent and got more aid thus leading to Pakistan adventurism, Kargil being a case in point.
Prior to this, over a protracted period, India punched below its weight internationally and Pakistan overpunched with the heady success of victory over Russia in Afghanistan, thus bringing the philosophy of death by a thousand cuts. All this coupled with massive foreign aid for Pakistan has not worked, nor has buying of massive arms for India. Today the two nations stand at cross roads regarding their relationship and the two core issues -- religious fundamentalism and the role of Pakistan Army are not even discussed, thus the relationship will remain a no go.
As economic progress takes place, India will be able to procure more arms and buy the same and more importantly it should be able to promote an Indian arms’ industry, to create at least 70 thousand jobs. Pakistan, on the other hand, will have to seek aid as its growth is stunted. In such an eventuality Pakistan will have to look at China whose friendship it values higher than the mountains. Defence expenditure costs will only increase with a projected 8 per cent growth rate, India will ensure that it is able to improve its defensive posture. On the other hand, Pakistan will turn to all weather fair friend China, once they stop milking the Americans, but for how long can a nation piggy back another nation? For China, Pakistan is an instrument of foreign policy which it uses to keep India on its toes and also uses the erstwhile Northern Areas of J&K as a buffer to strengthen its hold on Tibet, thus the Chinese footprints in the Neelam Valley. Whereas India, with its growth story intact, will be able to take this expenditure the impact across the border will cause an economic implosion. Whatever the consequences are, they need to be examined. The short term answer as being implemented by Pakistan is to achieve parity with nuclear weapons, but unfortunately they cost and in the long run it’s economic coupled with society stability that bring national progress. History tells us that a nuclear armed Russia was not able to match America and collapsed under the weight of economic contradictions, thus living on borrowed weapons and debt cause problems in the long run.
How should India tackle the issue, some signs are already emerging, the signing of the Strategic Treaty with Afghanistan is a case in point. India needs to ensure its economic progress and stability by big ticket reforms which the UPA-II has yet not delivered. It needs a policy of Velvet glove and iron fist as far as Pakistan is concerned. Talibanisation of Pakistan and its society will impact India as also will the dirty bomb as also, the ability to arm the disgruntled elements, be it a minority community or Sikh extremist, thus the velvet glove and iron fist. On the other hand, if Pakistan does implode, the maximum turmoil will be on India, who should have the ability to deter a diversion created by Pakistan army in the name of Jihad as also, seal its borders from the Jihad as history tells us barring the British all other invasions came from North West Frontier Province, now called KP province in Pakistan. The key lies in strengthening the Indian economy and increasing spending on defence to increase the gap and make the same look so unassailable even to the soldiers across who consider themselves “Gods Own Army” with or without nuclear weapons are forced to the negotiation table.
First, Kashmir is not the “core issue”. The core issue is Pakistan itself, created as the “land of the pure”. Religious purity is not the glue that binds the nation; on the other hand it has created deep sectarian fissures between the various societies in Pakistan. There is the Shia-Sunni divide, which is wrecking havoc and the vexed Mojahiar problem of Karachi, which does not seem to have easy answers. Minorities are steadily targeted and the social fabric of the society is being put under strain in a very feudal society. Of course India is a secular society but it did have Hindu-Muslim riots and still is on a tinder box regarding minorities. It has a tolerant society and strong democratic credentials, thus on the path to strong recovery, therefore, seen in this light the Communal Violence Bill being introduced by the NAC could well be a retrograde step.
The next issue is the Pakistan Army itself, which does not exist for the Pakistan State but for itself. The green book of Pakistan lays lots of emphasis on Jihad as a part of State policy, to other it seems the chickens have come home to roost and in the process destabilise the nation of Pakistan. This institution failed the country, with the creation of Bangladesh led many coup de tats on a number of occasions and also was indirectly responsible for Kargil, where nothing was achieved. It is worried about strategic depth in Afghanistan, thus it breeds all sorts of shady outfits and has created a no go area for itself with America, post their with drawl and succeeded in opening up the dormant Western front, thus requiring Secretary of State Clinton to visit and soothe-frayed tempers. The Army said, Napoleon marches on its stomach. A look at history shows that Revolution in military affairs normally occurs in times of economic prosperity. This happens as the size of the economic cake increases and the value of the currency goes up giving a twin bonanza buying more weapons for lesser money. Of course due to various policies, India adopted a dormant policy, underspent, while Pakistan overspent and got more aid thus leading to Pakistan adventurism, Kargil being a case in point.
Prior to this, over a protracted period, India punched below its weight internationally and Pakistan overpunched with the heady success of victory over Russia in Afghanistan, thus bringing the philosophy of death by a thousand cuts. All this coupled with massive foreign aid for Pakistan has not worked, nor has buying of massive arms for India. Today the two nations stand at cross roads regarding their relationship and the two core issues -- religious fundamentalism and the role of Pakistan Army are not even discussed, thus the relationship will remain a no go.
As economic progress takes place, India will be able to procure more arms and buy the same and more importantly it should be able to promote an Indian arms’ industry, to create at least 70 thousand jobs. Pakistan, on the other hand, will have to seek aid as its growth is stunted. In such an eventuality Pakistan will have to look at China whose friendship it values higher than the mountains. Defence expenditure costs will only increase with a projected 8 per cent growth rate, India will ensure that it is able to improve its defensive posture. On the other hand, Pakistan will turn to all weather fair friend China, once they stop milking the Americans, but for how long can a nation piggy back another nation? For China, Pakistan is an instrument of foreign policy which it uses to keep India on its toes and also uses the erstwhile Northern Areas of J&K as a buffer to strengthen its hold on Tibet, thus the Chinese footprints in the Neelam Valley. Whereas India, with its growth story intact, will be able to take this expenditure the impact across the border will cause an economic implosion. Whatever the consequences are, they need to be examined. The short term answer as being implemented by Pakistan is to achieve parity with nuclear weapons, but unfortunately they cost and in the long run it’s economic coupled with society stability that bring national progress. History tells us that a nuclear armed Russia was not able to match America and collapsed under the weight of economic contradictions, thus living on borrowed weapons and debt cause problems in the long run.
How should India tackle the issue, some signs are already emerging, the signing of the Strategic Treaty with Afghanistan is a case in point. India needs to ensure its economic progress and stability by big ticket reforms which the UPA-II has yet not delivered. It needs a policy of Velvet glove and iron fist as far as Pakistan is concerned. Talibanisation of Pakistan and its society will impact India as also will the dirty bomb as also, the ability to arm the disgruntled elements, be it a minority community or Sikh extremist, thus the velvet glove and iron fist. On the other hand, if Pakistan does implode, the maximum turmoil will be on India, who should have the ability to deter a diversion created by Pakistan army in the name of Jihad as also, seal its borders from the Jihad as history tells us barring the British all other invasions came from North West Frontier Province, now called KP province in Pakistan. The key lies in strengthening the Indian economy and increasing spending on defence to increase the gap and make the same look so unassailable even to the soldiers across who consider themselves “Gods Own Army” with or without nuclear weapons are forced to the negotiation table.
